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Exchange rates and sovereign risk : a nonlinear approach based on local Gaussian correlations

Heinlein, Reinhold; Legrenzi, Gabriella; Mahadeo, Scott … - 2024

We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505308

Banking and debt crisis in Europe : the dangerous liaisons?

Candelon, Bertrand; Palm, Franz C. - 2010

The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated … the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before … self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future. -- king crisis ; sovereign debt crisis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951604

Boom-bust cycles in middle income countries : facts and explanation

Tornell, Aaron; Westermann, Frank - 2002

In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have witnessed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410453

Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries : Facts and Explanation

Tornell, Aaron; Westermann, Frank - 2021

In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle' that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240937

The euro crisis and economic growth : a novel counterfactual approach

Terzi, Alessio - 2019 - This Draft: 25 June 2019

Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033212

Contagion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Glover, Brent - 2014

We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045650

Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies

Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020

Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162762

Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Foreign Exchange Rate Market

Elliott, Graham - 2010

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the conventional tests of efficiency (unbiasedness) of the forward rate or of the survey forecasts do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763699

Transparency, Risk Management and International Financial Fragility

Draghi, Mario - 2003

Discussions of financial risk often fail to distinguish between risks that are consciously borne and those that are not. To understand the breeding conditions for financial crises the prime focus of concern should not be simply on large risk-taking per se, but on the unintended, or unanticipated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786498

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk

Bianchi, Javier; Sosa‐Padilla, César - 2022

In the past three decades, governments in emerging markets have accumulated large amounts of international reserves, especially those with fixed exchange rates. We propose a theory of reserve accumulation that can account for these facts. Using a model of endogenous sovereign default with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013299203

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