Similar Search Results

Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets : Empirical Indicators

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Rose, Andrew Kenan - 2021

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228733

Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2010

This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142551

Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?

Chinn, Menzie David - 2012

currency? Unlike ten years ago, there now exists a credible competitor: the euro. This paper econometrically estimates … (we estimate a weight on the preceding year's currency share around .9). The advent of the euro interrupts the continuity … equation correctly predicts a (small) narrowing in the gap between the dollar and euro over the period 1999-2004. Whether the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105149

The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency

Chinn, Menzie David - 2010

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the … euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the … the de facto financial center of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759417

Short-Term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate : Evidence from Survey Data

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Froot, Kenneth - 2021

Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218532

Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties : The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Froot, Kenneth - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014071457

The Desirability of a Dollar Appreciation, Given a Contractionary U.S. Monetary Policy

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2022

Undesirable real effects have been attributed to floating exchange rates in general, and the 1980-83 appreciation of the dollar in particular.In the appreciating country, the U.S., export industries lose competitiveness and so output falls. In the other country, say Europe, the exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308503

Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Cavallo, Eduardo A. - 2021

Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflow, currency crashes, or severe recessions. Some believe that openness raises vulnerability to foreign shocks, while others believe that it makes adjustment to crises...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311905

Over-Optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2011

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122217

Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2013

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075796