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Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2010

This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142551

The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency

Chinn, Menzie David - 2010

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the … euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the … the de facto financial center of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759417

Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?

Chinn, Menzie David - 2012

currency? Unlike ten years ago, there now exists a credible competitor: the euro. This paper econometrically estimates … (we estimate a weight on the preceding year's currency share around .9). The advent of the euro interrupts the continuity … equation correctly predicts a (small) narrowing in the gap between the dollar and euro over the period 1999-2004. Whether the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105149

Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Cavallo, Eduardo A. - 2021

Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflow, currency crashes, or severe recessions. Some believe that openness raises vulnerability to foreign shocks, while others believe that it makes adjustment to crises...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311905

An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture : Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012750866

Over-Optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2011

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122217

Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2013

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075796

A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Rose, Andrew Kenan - 2022

We survey the empirical literature on floating nominal exchange rates over the past decade. Exchange rates are difficult to forecast at short- to medium-term horizons. There is a bit of explanatory power to monetary models such as the Dornbusch 'overshooting' theory, in the form of reaction to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324011

Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Rose, Andrew Kenan - 2021

Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency union has, via trade, on output per capita. We use economic and geographic data for over 200...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222899