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Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - 2023

The U.S. dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate closely tracks global financial conditions, which themselves show a cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth, especially influencing the fortunes of emerging and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014259726

The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates

Obstfeld, Maurice; Rogoff, Kenneth - 2021

This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242908

Covered Interest Parity Deviations : Macrofinancial Determinants

Cerutti, Eugenio - 2019

This paper studies how several macrofinancial factors are associated over time with the evolution of covered interest parity (CIP) deviations in the decade after the Global Financial Crisis. Changes in a number of risk- and policy-related factors have a significant association with the evolution...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865278

The Logic of Currency Crises

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2021

Once one recognizes that governments borrow international reserves and exercise other policy options to defend fixed exchange rates during currency crises, the question arises: What factors determine a government's decision to abandon a currency peg or hang on? In a setting of purposeful action...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213429

Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and the Exchange Rates of Emerging Economies

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2021

Among the developing countries of the world, those emerging markets that have sought some degree of integration into world finance are characterized by higher per capita incomes, higher long-run growth rates, and lower output and consumption volatility. These characteristics are more likely to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246095

Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier - 2011

A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121927

International Monetary Relations : Taking Finance Seriously

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2017

In our book, Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth, we traced out the evolution of the international monetary system using the framework of the “international monetary trilemma”: countries can enjoy at most two from the set {exchange-rate stability, open capital markets,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954933

The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows

Hale, Galina - 2014

but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits … analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro … euro area …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055510

A Strategy for Launching the Euro

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2022

conversion rates between the Euro and the currencies of EMU" member states. Current EU legislation, notably the Maastricht treaty … Euro. " Unfortunately, most of these have potentially damaging side effects. One approach official Stage 2 offers of … contingent Euro forward contracts with value dates at the start of" Stage 3, allows a highly credible preannouncement of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308606