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Equilibrium real interest rates, secular stagnation, and the financial cycle : empirical evidence for euro-area member countries

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2018

Is the Euro area as a whole, or are individual Euro-area member countries facing a period of sustained lower economic …, we expand our model to incorporate the financial cycle. We estimate the model for the Euro area as a whole and for nine … Euro-area member countries. Incorporating the financial cycle changes the estimated equilibrium real interest rates: For …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894437

Modifying Taylor reaction functions in presence of the zero-lower-bound : evidence for the ECB and the Fed

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2012

We propose an alternative way of estimating Taylor reaction functions if the zero-lowerbound on nominal interest rates is binding. This approach relies on tackling the real rather than the nominal interest rate. So if the nominal rate is (close to) zero central banks can influence the inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010209965

Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063951