This article investigates the relationship between expected returns and past idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads...

This paper shows that commodity portfolios that capture the backwardation and contango phases exhibit in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power for the first two moments of the distribution of long-horizon aggregate equity market returns, and for the business cycle. It also demonstrates that...

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We choose nine Sub Saharan African countries that are heavily dependent on a single agricultural commodity for a significant portion of their income. This...

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we...

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we...

We examine the effect of pandemics on selected commodity prices-in particular, those of zinc, copper, lead, and oil. We set up a vector autoregressive model and analyse data since the mid-nineteenth century to determine how prices reacted to pandemics such as the 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957 Asian...