This article investigates the relationship between expected returns and past idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads...

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of pandemics on commodity price volatility. In specific,we explore the impact of economic uncertainty related to global pandemics on the volatility of the S&P GSCI commodity index as well as on the sub-indexes of crude oil and gold. The...

This paper shows that commodity portfolios that capture the backwardation and contango phases exhibit in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power for the first two moments of the distribution of long-horizon aggregate equity market returns, and for the business cycle. It also demonstrates that...