We show that, since the inception of energy futures markets, prices have on average exhibited backwardation. Normal backwardation has also been the norm, but, because of the low power of the standard tests, most researchers have concluded that the unbiased expectations model cannot be rejected....

This study proposes a novel framework for the joint modelling of commodity forward curves. Its key contribution is twofold. First, dynamic correlation models are applied in this context as part of the modelling scheme. Second, we introduce a family of dynamic conditional correlation models based...

Multiple delivery specifications exist on nearly all commodity futures contracts. Sellers are typically allowed to choose among several grades of the underlying commodity. On the delivery day, the futures price converges to the spot price of the cheapest-to-deliver grade rather than to that of...

Rohstoffe sind noch immer Hauptexportprodukte vieler Länder mit geringem Einkommen und somit Hauptquelle für ihre Exporterlöse. Preisschwankungen an internationalen Rohstoffmärkten stellen daher für diese Länder ein erhebliches Problem dar. Sie beeinflussen die Staatseinnahmen, die...