A well-documented empirical result is that market expectations extracted from futures contracts on the federal funds rate are among the best predictors for the future course of monetary policy. We show how this information can be exploited to produce accurate forecasts of bond excess returns and...

Purpose: This study utilizes the KNV measure to evaluate performance of national pension funds of Korea. Design/methodology/approach: First, this study investigates whether fund managers pick stocks in expansions and time the market in recessions. Second, we examine skilled funds that have both...