Purpose: This study utilizes the KNV measure to evaluate performance of national pension funds of Korea. Design/methodology/approach: First, this study investigates whether fund managers pick stocks in expansions and time the market in recessions. Second, we examine skilled funds that have both...

This paper introduces a new test of the predictive performance and market timing for categorical forecasts based on contingency tables when the user has non-categorical loss functions. For example, a user might be interested in the return of an underlying variable instead of just the direction....