This paper examines how the size of the rolling window, and the frequency used in moving average (MA) trading strategies, affects financial performance when risk is measured. We use the MA rule for market timing, that is, for when to buy stocks and when to shift to the risk-free rate. The...

This paper introduces a new test of the predictive performance and market timing for categorical forecasts based on contingency tables when the user has non-categorical loss functions. For example, a user might be interested in the return of an underlying variable instead of just the direction....

Hedging downside risk before substantial price corrections is vital for risk management and long-only active equity manager performance. This study proposes a novel methodology for crafting timing signals to hedge sectors' downside risk. These signals can be integrated into existing strategies...