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In this paper we introduce a new two-factor commodity term structure model for which inventories serve as a second state variable. We derive a closed-form formula for futures prices and empirically analyze the model's properties. Besides being economically appealing, our model also outperforms...
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This paper contributes to the theories commodity prices and exhaustible resources by examining simultaneous optimal resource extraction and dynamic capacity building. I analyze the ways in which random demand process and irreversible capacity options shape the long-term price and volatility path...
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