We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying...

This research link market microstructure with efficiency. Liquidity and volatility are linked with time-varying informational efficiency of the Asian emerging economies. Three measures are used for each variable. Using SGMM, this study finds that both variables have significant role in driving...

This paper investigates to what extent Chinese monetary policy is constrained by the dollar peg. To this end, we use a cointegration framework to examine whether Chinese interest rates are driven by the Fed's policy. In a second step, we estimate a monetary model for China, in which we include...

Adverse selection induces economic limits to market substitution. If quality uncertainty persists in both internet and traditional marketplaces, a second-best equilibrium with parallel market segments may arise. Positive trade in parallel segments implies that the information cost advantage of...