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We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying...
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The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated … the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before … self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future. -- king crisis ; sovereign debt crisis …
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This paper examines whether the Big Three credit rating agencies actually played as active a role in the Euro Crisis as …
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Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...
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This research link market microstructure with efficiency. Liquidity and volatility are linked with time-varying informational efficiency of the Asian emerging economies. Three measures are used for each variable. Using SGMM, this study finds that both variables have significant role in driving...
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Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have …
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