The efficient market hypothesis implies that asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the nonlinear error correction...

In this paper a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is used to test the hypothesis r = r0 against the alternative r r0. Such a test flips the null and alternative hypotheses of Johansen's LR test and can be used jointly with the LR test to construct a confidence set for the cointegration rank....

East-West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 90s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyze the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear...

We show in the paper that the decomposition proposed by Beveridge and Nelson (1981) for models that are integrated of order one can be generalized to seasonal Arima models by means of a partial fraction decomposition. Two equivalent algorithms are proposed to optimally (in the mean squared...

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

In a world with imperfect competition, market externalities or asymmetric information, the impact of money and monetary policy on the real sector depends on the way money is created. Two conflicting views of money supply can be distinguished in the literature: the endogeneity view and the...

In this paper, the empirical relevance of the credit channel for the explanation of monetary policy transmission in Germany during the period of monetary targeting from 1975 to 1998 is analyzed. While existing studies of the credit channel rely mostly on the analysis of monetary policy effects...

This paper evaluates complementarities of labor market institutions and the business cycle in the context of a stochastic dynamic general equililbriurn model econorny. Matching between workers and vacancies with endogenous search intensity, Nash-bargained wages, payroll taxation, and...

This paper investigates the effect of displacement on reemployment wages of socially insured West German workers who became unemployed in 1986. Because detailed information on the cause of job loss is unavailable, displacement status is imputed using a probit estimated on the German...