Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

The efficient market hypothesis implies that asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the nonlinear error correction...

This paper tests the validity of Present Value (PV) models of stock prices by employing a two-step strategy for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the power and size...

A systems cointegration rank test is proposed which is applicable for vector autoregressive (VAR) processes with a structural shift at unknown time. The structural shift is modeled as a simple shift in the mean of the process. It is proposed to estimate the break date first on the basis of a...

Likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process have been developed under different assumptions regarding deterministic terms. For instance, nonzero mean terms and linear trends have been accounted for in some of the tests. In this paper we provide...

Testing the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process which may have a deterministic linear trend is considered. Previous proposals for dealing with such a situation are either to allow for a deterministic trend term in computing a suitable test statistic or else remove the linear...

The impact of the choice of the lag length on tests for the number of cointegration relations in a vector autoregressive (VAR) process is investigated. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the cointegrating rank remains unchanged if the true data...

In this paper we introduce a bootstrap procedure to test parameter restrictions in vector autoregressive models which is robust in cases of conditionally heteroskedastic error terms. The adopted wild bootstrap method does not require any parametric specification of the volatility process and...