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Semiparametric modelling of the cross-section of expected returns in the German stock market
Stehle, Richard; Bunke, Olaf; Sommerfeld, Volker - 1997
According to the Sharpe-Lintner capital asset pricing model, expected rates of return on individual stocks differ only because of their different levels of non-diversifiable risk (beta). However, Fama/French (1992) show that the two variables size and book-to-market ratio capture the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009661022
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Estimation and testing for varying coefficients in additive models with marginal integration
Yang, Lijian; Härdle, Wolfgang; Park, Byeong U. - 2002
We propose marginal integration estimation and testing methods for the coefficients of varying coefficient multivariate … regression model. Asymptotic distribution theory is developed for the estimation method which enjoys the same rate of convergence … as univariate function estimation. For the test statistic, asymptotic normal theory is established. These theoretical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627286
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Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system
Brüggemann, Ralf; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000
Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583885
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Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques
Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2001
The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined in this article by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994), we show that the series can be specified in terms of I(d) statistical models with d...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613608
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Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis : the case of German dual-class shares
Breitung, Jörg; Wulff, Christian - 1999
The efficient market hypothesis implies that asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the nonlinear error correction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581105
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Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000
This paper tests the validity of Present Value (PV) models of stock prices by employing a two-step strategy for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the power and size...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582383
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Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes
Grammig, Joachim; Wellner, Marc - 1999
-transaction duration process and vice versa. In order to solve the estimation problems implied by this interdependent formulation, we first … propose a GMM estimation procedure for the Autoregressive Conditional Duration model. The method is then extended to the … simultaneous estimation of the interdependent duration-volatility model. In an empirical application we utilize the model for an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579173
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Manipulation in political stock markets : preconditions and evidence
Hansen, Jan; Schmidt, Carsten; Strobel, Martin - 2001
Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614875
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Predictive accuracy of political stock markets : empirical evidence from a European perspective
Berlemann, Michael; Schmidt, Carsten - 2001
In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614879
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Institutional determinants of balance of payment dynamics
Voll, Sebastian - 2015
Dynamics of Balance of Payment developments are still barely researched. Chapter 1 tries to summarize empirical evidence between institutional determinants and BoP movements and proposes a framework for the role of institutions in a debt cycle. It is found that “good” institutions do help a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010495614