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Balance Sheet Effects on Monetary and Financial Spillovers : The East Asian Crisis Plus 20

Aizenman, Joshua - 2016

We study how the financial conditions in the Center Economies [the U.S., Japan, and the Euro area] impact other … euro) makes the response of a financial variable such as the REER and exchange market pressure in the PHs more sensitive to … a change in key variables in the U.S. (or the euro area) such as policy interest rates and the REER. While having more …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455943

For a Few Dollars More : Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises

Bussière, Matthieu - 2014

Based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries, this paper addresses two key questions regarding the accumulation of international reserves: first, has the accumulation of reserves effectively protected countries during the 2008-09 financial crisis? And second, what...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458872

Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises

Chinn, Menzie D. - 1999

This paper focuses on the 1995 Latin American and 1997 East Asian crises using an insurance-based model of financial crises. First the model of Dooley (forthcoming) is described. Second, some empirical evidence for an insurance model is presented. The key variables in this approach include the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471706

Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates

Engel, Charles - 2012

We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460277

Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle

Alquist, Ron - 2002

This paper documents the evidence for a productivity based model of the dollar/euro real exchange rate over the 1985 … the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson (1993) procedures. We find that each percentage point in the US-Euro area … estimation methodology, the variables included in the regression, and the sample period. We conjecture that productivity …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469891

A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar

Engel, Charles; Kazakova, Ekaterina; Wang, Mengqi; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

We re-examine the time-series evidence for failures of uncovered interest rate parity on short-term deposits for the U.S. dollar versus major currencies of developed countries at short-, medium- and long-horizons. The evidence that interest rate differentials predict foreign exchange risk...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482636

Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century

Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve Pak Yeung - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

The level of the (log of) the exchange rate seems to have strong forecasting power for dollar exchange rates against major currencies post-2000 at medium- to long-run horizons of 12-, 36- and 60-months. We find that this is true using conventional asymptotic statistics correcting for serial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482663

Collateral Advantage : Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles

Devereux, Michael B.; Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve Pak Yeung - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We construct a two-country New Keynesian model in which US government debt has an advantage as a superior collateral asset in the balance sheets of banks. The model can account for the observed response of the US dollar and US bond returns to a global downturn, in particular when the downturn is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250181

Exchange Rate Models are Better than You Think, and Why They Didn't Work in the Old Days

Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve P. Y. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A "standard" model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056131

Surfing the Waves of Globalization : Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma

Aizenman, Joshua - 2010

Using the "trilemma indexes" developed by Aizenman et al. (2008) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma--monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness--we examine how policy configurations affect macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462774