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We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473427
Based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries, this paper addresses two key questions regarding the accumulation of international reserves: first, has the accumulation of reserves effectively protected countries during the 2008-09 financial crisis? And second, what...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458872
This paper focuses on the 1995 Latin American and 1997 East Asian crises using an insurance-based model of financial crises. First the model of Dooley (forthcoming) is described. Second, some empirical evidence for an insurance model is presented. The key variables in this approach include the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471706
This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462605
Models of dynamic inconsistency in monetary policy and the need for central bank independence and commitment to nominal targets apply even more strongly to developing countries. But because most developing countries are price-takers on world markets, the small open economy model, with nontraded...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462531
This paper considers policies of the industrialized countries, as they pertain to crises in emerging markets. These fall into three areas: (1) their own macroeconomic policies, which determine the global financial environment; (2) their role in responding to crises when they occur, particularly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470082
This paper documents the evidence for a productivity based model of the dollar/euro real exchange rate over the 1985 … the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson (1993) procedures. We find that each percentage point in the US-Euro area … estimation methodology, the variables included in the regression, and the sample period. We conjecture that productivity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469891
Undesirable real effects have been attributed to floating exchange rates in general, and the 1980-83 appreciation of the dollar in particular.In the appreciating country, the U.S., export industries lose competitiveness and so output falls. In the other country, say Europe, the exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477992