We re-examine the time-series evidence for failures of uncovered interest rate parity on short-term deposits for the U.S. dollar versus major currencies of developed countries at short-, medium- and long-horizons. The evidence that interest rate differentials predict foreign exchange risk...

The level of the (log of) the exchange rate seems to have strong forecasting power for dollar exchange rates against major currencies post-2000 at medium- to long-run horizons of 12-, 36- and 60-months. We find that this is true using conventional asymptotic statistics correcting for serial...

This paper employs an updated algorithm and database for classifying exchange rate and anchor currency choice, to explore the evolution of the global exchange rate system, including parallel rates, capital controls and reserves. In line with a large recent literature, we find that the dollar has...

Do central banks rebalance their currency shares? The answer matters because the dollar's predominant role in large official reserve holdings means that widespread rebalancing requires central banks to buy (sell) a depreciating (appreciating) dollar, stabilising its value against other major...

Recent trends suggest the world economy may be tending towards an equilibrium with two distinct trading blocs, each internally integrated, but with significant isolation between the blocs. This paper uses a quantitative theory to explore how far this bifurcation would need to go to pose a threat...

We link the sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar from 2011 to 2019 to international capital flows driven by primitive economic factors. We show that increases in foreign investors' net savings, increases in U.S. monetary policy rates relative to the rest of the world, and shifts in investor...

Since 1980, foreign investors have timed their purchases and sales of U.S. Treasurys to yield particularly low returns. Their annual dollar-weighted returns, measured by IRRs, are around 3% lower than a buy-and-hold strategy over the same horizon. In comparison, the IRRs achieved by domestic...

Recent sanctions on the use of Russia's international reserve assets seem likely to reduce the appeal of US dollar reserves as a "shock absorber" for international payments. But international reserves are also a means to reassure foreign investors that problematic countries will not confiscate...

In March 2020, the Federal Reserve eased the terms on its standing swap lines in collaboration with other central banks, reactivated temporary swap agreements, and then introduced the new Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility. We provide new evidence on how the...