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Contagion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Glover, Brent - 2014
We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458098
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Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Foreign Exchange Rate Market
Elliott, Graham - 1995
This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the conventional tests of efficiency (unbiasedness) of the forward rate or of the survey forecasts do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473491
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Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets : Empirical Indicators
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996
We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473427
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Currency Centrality in Equity Markets, Exchange Rates and Global Financial Cycles
Rey, Hélène; Stavrakeva, Vania; Tang, Jenny - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
The paper explores empirically the tight links between exchange rates and the global network of equity holdings. Exchange rates can be expressed in terms of "equity net currency supplies", i.e. local currency stock market capitalization minus equity holdings, denominated in investors'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072944
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Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting During the Financial Crisis
Molodtsova, Tanya - 2012
interest rate in response to inflation and either the output or the unemployment gap, for the euro/dollar exchange rate with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460332
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Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks
Ivashina, Victoria - 2012
in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because … these banks rely on wholesale dollar funding, while raising more of their euro funding through insured retail deposits, the … dollar funding, there were significant violations of euro-dollar CIP. Moreover, dollar lending by Eurozone banks fell …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460132
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Optimal Currency Area : A 20th Century Idea For the 21st Century?
Aizenman, Joshua - 2016
We take stock of the history of the European Monetary Union and pegged exchange-rate regimes in recent decades. The post-Bretton Woods greater financial integration and under-regulated financial intermediation have increased the cost of sustaining a currency area and other forms of fixed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456577
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Five Facts about the UIP Premium
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Varela, Liliana - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We document five novel facts about Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) deviations vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar for 34 currencies of advanced economies and emerging markets, using survey data on expected exchange rate. First, the UIP premium co-moves with global risk perception (VIX) for all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585407
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Domestic Price Dollarization in Emerging Economies
Drenik, Andres - 2020
This paper studies the dollarization of prices in retail markets of emerging economies. We develop a model of the firm's optimal currency choice in retail markets in inflationary economies. We derive theoretical predictions regarding the optimality of dollar pricing, and test them using data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481195
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The Global Dollar Cycle
Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
The U.S. dollar's nominal effective exchange rate closely tracks global financial conditions, which themselves show a cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth, especially influencing the fortunes of emerging and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247924