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Predictive accuracy of political stock markets : empirical evidence from a European perspective

Berlemann, Michael; Schmidt, Carsten - 2001

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614879

Modelling exchange rates volatility with multivariate long-memory ARCH processes

Teyssière, Gilles - 1999 - Rev.

, and the Deutschmark-US dollar. The estimation results for both models show: (i) that the unrestricted model outperforms …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579181

Adaptive estimation for a time inhomogeneous stochastic-volatility model

Härdle, Wolfgang; Spokojnyj, Vladimir G.; Teyssière, … - 2000

problem of online estimation of current values of w = w(T) and a = a(T) from the observations SI , ... ,ST. We propose an … adaptive method of estimation which does not use any information about time homogeneity of the obscured process. We apply this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582392