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Cointegrating smooth transition regressions with applications to the Asian currency crisis

Saikkonen, Pentti; Choi, In - 2000

This paper studies the smooth transition regression model where regressors are I(1) and errors are I(0). The regressors and errors are assumed to be dependent both serially and contemporaneously. Using the triangular array asymptotics, the nonlinear least squares estimator is shown to be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612025

Semiparametric modelling of the cross-section of expected returns in the German stock market

Stehle, Richard; Bunke, Olaf; Sommerfeld, Volker - 1997

According to the Sharpe-Lintner capital asset pricing model, expected rates of return on individual stocks differ only because of their different levels of non-diversifiable risk (beta). However, Fama/French (1992) show that the two variables size and book-to-market ratio capture the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009661022

Estimation and testing for varying coefficients in additive models with marginal integration

Yang, Lijian; Härdle, Wolfgang; Park, Byeong U. - 2002

We propose marginal integration estimation and testing methods for the coefficients of varying coefficient multivariate … regression model. Asymptotic distribution theory is developed for the estimation method which enjoys the same rate of convergence … as univariate function estimation. For the test statistic, asymptotic normal theory is established. These theoretical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627286

Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system

Brüggemann, Ralf; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583885

Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2001

The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined in this article by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994), we show that the series can be specified in terms of I(d) statistical models with d...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613608

Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis : the case of German dual-class shares

Breitung, Jörg; Wulff, Christian - 1999

The efficient market hypothesis implies that asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the nonlinear error correction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581105

Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

This paper tests the validity of Present Value (PV) models of stock prices by employing a two-step strategy for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the power and size...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582383

Parametric versus nonparametric goodness of fit : another view

Läuter, Henning; Nikulin, Michail S. - 1999

We consider chi-squared type tests for testing the hypothesis H 0 that a density f of observations X1,..., Xn lies in a parametric class of densities F. We consider a version of chi-squared type test using kernel estimates for the density. The main result is, following Liero, Läuter and Konakov...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579178

Comparison of nonparametric goodness of fit tests

Läuter, Henning; Sachsenweger, Cornelia - 1999

maximum-likelihood-estimation (m.l.e.). The power of both tests will be examined under local alternatives. Although both tests …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579183

Local power of likelihood ratio tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process

Saikkonen, Pentti; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1997

Likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process have been developed under different assumptions regarding deterministic terms. For instance, nonzero mean terms and linear trends have been accounted for in some of the tests. In this paper we provide...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009659070