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Are Emerging Market Currency Crises Predictable? - a Test

Peltonen, Tuomas A. - 2021

This paper analyzes the predictability of emerging market currency crises by comparing the often used probit model to a new method, namely a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model. According to the results, both models were able to signal currency crises reasonably well...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318114

Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities and Future Financial Stress : Assessing Systemic Risks and Predicting Systemic Events

Lo Duca, Marco - 2011

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128992

Financial collapse and active monetary policy : a lesson from the Great Depression

Cooper, Russell W.; Corbae, Dean - 2001

"We analyze financial collapses, such as the one that occurred during the U.S. Great Depression, from the perspective of a monetary model with multiple equilibria.The multiplicity arises from the presence of a strategic complementarity due to increasing returns to scale in the intermediation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001565889

Imports and Profitability in the Euro Area Manufacturing Sector : The Role of Emerging Market Economies

Peltonen, Tuomas A. - 2008

The paper analyses the impact of import penetration on firms' profitability in 15 manufacturing industries in 10 euro … competition from emerging market economies has had an overall negative impact on companies' profitability in the euro area … profitability. Finally, we find asymmetric effects on profitability across euro area countries and sectors …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771395

"Whatever it takes" is all you need : monetary policy and debt fragility

Camous, Antoine; Cooper, Russell W. - In: American economic journal : a journal of the American … 11 (2019) 4, pp. 38-81

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012139742

Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian models

Del Negro, Marco; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; Schorfheide, Frank - In: American economic journal : a journal of the American … 7 (2015) 1, pp. 168-196

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010517076

The collateral composition channel

Boissay, Frédéric; Cooper, Russell W. - In: American economic journal : a journal of the American … 12 (2020) 1, pp. 41-75

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173911

Fiscal contralization : theory and evidence from the Great Depression

Coen-Pirani, Daniele; Wooley, Michael - In: American economic journal : a journal of the American … 10 (2018) 2, pp. 39-61

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865533

Mapping the State of Financial Stability

Sarlin, Peter - 2011

The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120562

Predicting Distress in European Banks

Betz, Frank - 2013

The paper develops an early-warning model for predicting vulnerabilities leading to distress in European banks using both bank and country-level data. As outright bank failures have been rare in Europe, the paper introduces a novel dataset that complements bankruptcies and defaults with state...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074637