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Firm heterogeneity and credit risk diversification

Hanson, Samuel; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Schuermann, Til - 2005

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risks and the nature of firm heterogeneity. The theoretical results obtained indicate that if firm-specific risk...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276169

Learning, structural instability and present value calculations

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; … - 2006

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276173

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2008

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276222

Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009

direct forecasts when estimation error is a first-order concern, i.e. in small samples and for long forecast horizons …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276226