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Economic theory predicts a negative relationship between inventories and the real interest rate, but previous empirical studies (mostly based on the older stock adjustment model) have found little evidence of such a relationship. We derive parametric tests for the role of the interest rate in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333073
Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stock market misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether overinvestment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264073
When investment is irreversible, theory suggests that firms will be "reluctant to invest." This reluctance creates a wedge between the discount rate guiding investment decisions and the standard Jorgensonian user cost (adjusted for risk). We use the intertemporal tradeoff between the benefits...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264335
Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276173
direct forecasts when estimation error is a first-order concern, i.e. in small samples and for long forecast horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276226