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econometrically estimated in continuous time with Euro/Dollar data and examined for the possible presence of chaotic motion. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274880
We argue that criticism concerning the Chinese dollar peg is misplaced as no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. The stable nominal yuan/dollar rate is argued to have stabilized Chinese, East Asian and global growth....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275052
by robust statistical methods. The estimation period reaches from 1997 to 2007. It is shown that most of the composite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265989
In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect … forecasts the OECD composite leading indicator performs very good by all criteria, and for 12-month forecasts the FAZ-Euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270868
subgroups including Euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274514
This brief exposition suggests that the Federal Reserve System temporarily guarantee a lower bound on stock prices in order to escape the current combination of liquidity trap and credit crunch. It shortly discusses reasons for this measure, consequences, and some alternatives. It is meant as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264478
Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stock market misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether overinvestment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264073
maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters in the model, we use an expectation maximization algorithm based on the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264085
One argument for floating the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect. However, we note that both theoretical considerations and empirical results do not offer a definite answer on the link between exchange rate arrangement and policy dependence. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264088
This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264093