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We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505308
In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have witnessed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410453
Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033212
This paper investigates to what extent Chinese monetary policy is constrained by the dollar peg. To this end, we use a cointegration framework to examine whether Chinese interest rates are driven by the Fed's policy. In a second step, we estimate a monetary model for China, in which we include...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008796581
’s handling of the euro crisis. We link models of multiple equilibria with the IMF's experience made in Latin American crises in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011548057
is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments’ responses to uncertain … macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model's mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area … understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Syiza government and the euro area governments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011406792
We use the Kalman filter to estimate the structure of the secret currency basket of the renminbi based on daily data between 2005 and 2009. The currency weights of selected currencies are modeled as stochastic processes (random walks). The official announcement of the new exchange rate regime in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003997605
econometrically estimated in continuous time with Euro/Dollar data and examined for the possible presence of chaotic motion. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011774
This paper studies the reaction of the mean and volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate to statements of ECB … officials during the first years of EMU. We focus on statements on monetary policy and the (potential) strength of the euro. We …. In some cases there are effects of statements on the level of the euro-dollar rate. Efforts to talk up the euro have not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507830
A rational-expectations equilibrium with positive demand for financial information does exist under fully revealing asset price - contrary to a wide-held conjecture. Generalizing the common additive signal-return model with CARA utility to the family of distributions with moment generating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451345