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There is already a substantial literature documenting the fact that low yield currencies typically appreciate during times of global financial stress and behave as safe havens. The main objective of this paper is to find out what the fundamentals of safe haven currencies are. We analyse a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131638
The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated … the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before … self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future. -- king crisis ; sovereign debt crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951604
Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033212
traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease. We empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 24 … reserve ratios, introducing transactions demand has a elatively modest effect. We also find that euro and dollar bonds act as … sudden stops in Asia and Latin America, while the euro is a better hedge for sudden stops in Emerging Europe. We reproduce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771394
Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162762
This paper aims to illustrate how a Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (MCS-GVAR) model can be set up and solved for the purpose of forecasting and scenario simulation. The application involves two cross-sections: sovereigns and banks for which we model their credit default swap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078534
is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments’ responses to uncertain … macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model's mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area … understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Syiza government and the euro area governments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011406792
This paper investigates bond issuance of non-financial corporations in advanced economies during the period 1999-2003, attempting to understand motives for issuing in foreign currency, and determinants for the choice of currency. We consider the following influences on the currency choice when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766990
This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European currencies and euro/dollar foreign … significant spillovers running from euro/dollar to the Central European foreign exchange markets. To measure the overall magnitude …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969723
economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US … have a statistically but also an economically significant impact on the euro, and to a lesser extent the yen against the US … the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar in recent years. Interestingly, EME policy-makers appear to have become …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012749953