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Greece's three-act tragedy : a simple model of Grexit vs. staying afloat inside the single currency area

Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael - 2015

is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments’ responses to uncertain … macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model's mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area … understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Syiza government and the euro area governments. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011406792

Banks' portfolio of government debt and sovereign risk

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2023

We analyze domestic, foreign, and central banks holdings of public debt for 31 countries for the period of 1989-2022, applying panel regressions and quantile analysis. We conclude that an increase in sovereign risk raises the share of domestic banks' portfolio of public debt and reduces the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014383613

Bank regulation and sovereign risk : a paradox

Afonso, António; Teixeira, André - 2023

This paper investigates the impact of banking prudential regulation on sovereign risk. We show that prudential regulation reduces sovereign risk and induces governments to spend more. As a result, countries with tight prudential regulation have lower primary budget balances and accumulate more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281475

Beyond borders : assessing the influence of geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2023

We assess the impact of geopolitical risk and world uncertainty on the sovereign debt risk of 26 European Economies during the period 1984-2022, through the implementation of OLS-Fixed Effects regressions and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). We find that geopolitical tensions and global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014442414

"Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? : bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects

Afonso, António; Arghyrou, Michael Georgiou; Gadea, … - 2017

This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. Our results provide evidence of a new bond-pricing regime following the announcement of the Outright...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011735972

The signalling channel of central bank interventions : modelling the yen

Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael; Glanemann, Nicole - 2011

This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009312174

Does the nominal exchange rate regime matter for investment?

Böhm, Hjalmar; Funke, Michael - 2001

This paper analyses the impact of exchange rate uncertainty upon the pattern of investment in different exchange rate regimes (very hard pegs, intermediate regimes, and floats) by means of a unified approach. The comparison of different exchange rate regimes indicates that currency volatility...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400788

Booms, recessions and financial turmoil : a fresh look at investment decisions under cyclical uncertainty

Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael - 2009

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003872827

Product variety and economic growth : empirical evidence for the OECD countries

Funke, Michael; Ruhwedel, Ralf - 2000

Utilizing panel data for 19 OECD countries we find suppor t for the hypothesis that a greater degree of product variety relative to the US helps to explain relative per capita GDP levels. The empirical work relies upon some direct measures of product variety calculated from 6-digit OECD export...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781524

The undisclosed renminbi basket : are the markets telling us something about where the renminbi - US dollar exchange rate is going?

Funke, Michael (contributor); Gronwald, Marc (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003674399