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We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505308
In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have witnessed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410453
Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033212
We use the Kalman filter to estimate the structure of the secret currency basket of the renminbi based on daily data between 2005 and 2009. The currency weights of selected currencies are modeled as stochastic processes (random walks). The official announcement of the new exchange rate regime in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003997605
econometrically estimated in continuous time with Euro/Dollar data and examined for the possible presence of chaotic motion. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011774
This paper studies the reaction of the mean and volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate to statements of ECB … officials during the first years of EMU. We focus on statements on monetary policy and the (potential) strength of the euro. We …. In some cases there are effects of statements on the level of the euro-dollar rate. Efforts to talk up the euro have not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507830
We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011568741
Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government spending are asymmetric. A spending cut lowers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012118599
Using quarterly data on four commodity exporting countries, we study the explanatory power of real commodity prices for predicting real effective exchange rates, with special attention to the separate roles of different sectoral commodity prices during alternative time periods. We find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383435
In this paper we have applied two approaches to the study of the dollar real exchange rate in relation with the Euro … seven developed countries, four of them Euro-area members. Second, we aggregate the European variables and estimate a model … for the Euro-dollar real exchange rate using time series techniques. After identification and model selection, the same …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011538958