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Common and spatial drivers in regional business cycles

Artis, Michael J.; Dreger, Christian; Cholodilin, … - 2009

We examine real business cycle convergence for 41 euro area regions and 48 US states. Results obtained by a panel model … decades in the euro area and the US. Ongoing business cycle convergence often detected in a country data is not confirmed at … the regional level. The degree of synchronization across the euro area is similar to that to be found for the US states …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807457

Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder

Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič (contributor); … - 2007

In this paper we forecast the annual growth rates of the real GDP for each of the 16 German Länder (States) simultaneously. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt in the literature that addresses this question for all German Länder as most of the studies try to forecast the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003426277

What affects the remittances of Turkish workers : Turkish or German output?

Akkoyunlu, Sule (contributor); … - 2006

In this paper we examine the interactions between the remittances of the Turkish workers in Germany and the output both in Turkey and in Germany. In our analysis we use the new data set provided by the German monetary authorities, which was never before employed in the literature and which we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003377145

Assessing the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases for now-/forecasting GDP : evidence for Switzerland

Siliverstovs, Boriss; Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič - 2010

This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003931033

Forecasting the prices and rents for flats in large German cities

Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Mense, Andreas - 2012

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579231

Internet offer prices for flats and their determinants : a cross section of large European cities

Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič - 2012

excluding variables and to applying two alternative estimation techniques: OLS and quantile regression. Based on our estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579235

In-sample and out-of-sample prediction of stock market bubbles : cross-sectional evidence

Herwartz, Helmut; Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič - 2011

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579611

Can internet ads serve as an indicator of homeownership rates?

Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Mense, Andreas - 2011

In this paper, we propose an indicator of the homeownership rate based on Internet ads offering the housing for rent and sale. We constructed the HOR estimate using the number of ads in four different markets (flats for rent, flats for sale, houses for rent, and houses for sale). Our HOR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579621

Do regions with entrepreneurial neighbors perform better? : A spatial econometric approach for German regions

Pijnenburg, Katharina; Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič - 2011

We use a neoclassical production function to analyze the effects of knowledge spillovers via entrepreneurship on economic performance of 337 German districts. To take the spatial dependence structure of the data into account, we estimate a spatial Durbin model. We highlight the importance of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009308905

Are geese flying by themselves inside China? : An LSTR-SEM approach to income convergence of Chinese counties

Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Girardin, Eric - 2011

In this paper, we examine beta-convergence of real per-capita income of Chinese counties. We account for both the spatial dependences between counties and the possibility of different convergence regimes. The first feature is captured by the spatial error term, whereas the second one is modeled...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009427871