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How stable are monetary models of the Dollar-Euro exchange rate? : a time-varying coefficient approach
Beckmann, Joscha; Belke, Ansgar; Kühl, Michael - 2009
exchange rate to one of the politically most important exchange rates, the exchange rate of the US dollar vis-à-vis the euro … (the DM). We use monthly data from 1975:01 to 2007:12. Applying a novel time-varying coefficient estimation approach, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003898577
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Volatility patterns of CDS, bond and stock markets before and during the financial crisis : evidence from major financial institutions
Belke, Ansgar; Gokus, Christian - 2011
This study is motivated by the development of credit-related instruments and signals of stock price movements of large banks during the recent financial crisis. What is common to most of the empirical studies in this field is that they concentrate on modeling the conditional mean. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009347974
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When does it hurt? : the exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports
Belke, Ansgar; Goecke, Matthias; Günther, Martin - 2009
euro. At the end of our estimation period, the previous exchange rate movements had shifted the upper bound of the play … area to about 1.55 US dollar per euro. In our interpretation, this is the current "pain threshold", where a strong spurt … reaction of exports to a further appreciation of the euro is expected to start. -- Exchange rate movements ; play hysteresis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003891080
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Long memory and volatility dynamics in the US dollar exchange rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2010
This paper focuses on nominal exchange rates, specifically the US dollar rate vis-à-vis the Euro and the Japanese Yen … dollar rate vis-à-vis the Euro and the Japanese Yen respectively. -- Fractional integration ; long memory ; exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003931070
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Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency data on the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2013
This paper analyses the long-memory properties of a high-frequency financial time series dataset. It focuses on temporal aggregation and other features of the data, and how they might affect the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009735715
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Leading indicators of German business cycles : an assessment of properties
Fritsche, Ulrich; Stephan, Sabine - 2000
A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432915
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Fractional integration and cointegration in US financial time series data
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2011
This paper examines several US monthly financial time series data using fractional integration and cointegration techniques. The univariate analysis based on fractional integration aims to determine whether the series are I(1) (in which case markets might be efficient) or alternatively I(d) with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009426696
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From financial to real economic crisis : evidence from individual firm-bank relationships in Germany
Dwenger, Nadja; Fossen, Frank M.; Simmler, Martin - 2015 - This version: September 25, 2015
What began as a financial crisis in the United States in 2007–2008 quickly evolved into a massive crisis of the global real economy. We investigate the importance of the bank lending and firm borrowing channel in the international transmission of bank distress to the real economy—in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011339776
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Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise : ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland
Belke, Ansgar - 2009
alternativen Kointegrationstestverfahrens die Ergebnisse nicht. -- Finanzkrise ; Geldmenge ; Immobilienpreise ; Liquidität …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003904552
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(How) do the ECB and the Fed react to financial market uncertainty? : the Taylor rule in times of crisis
Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2010
We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003931051