Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...

Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936) macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet in recent decades macroeconomists have devoted almost no effort to modeling actual empirical expectations data instead assuming all...

We estimate the degree of 'stickiness' in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness...

This paper applies a standard treatment effects model to determine that participation in Freshman Learning Communities (FLCs) improves academic performance and retention. Not controlling for individual self-selection into FLC participation leads one to incorrectly conclude that the impact is the...

This paper uses a unique personnel data set to explore job separation behavior among welfare hires. Our results indicate that welfare hires are no less stable than similar nonwelfare hires; however, time until separation does differ across welfare status by reason for separation. We also found...

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether workers’ commitment to the labor force declined after 9/11, as many popular press accounts at the time suggested it would. The results indicate that any measured decline in hours spent working was the result of economic conditions rather than...