We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...

We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying...

Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments...

This paper investigates contagion effects. In a model with highly and lowly informed investors we show that a currency crisis in one country can trigger a crisis in another country. Portfolio losses of the highly informed investors in one country will force them to withdraw capital from the...

Ziel des vorliegenden Diskussionspapiers ist es, einen Beitrag zur Verbesserung der Vergleichbarkeit der Schätzgüteergebnisse von Insolvenzprognosestudien zu leisten. Hierzu werden zunächst in der Literatur verwendete kategoriale, ordinale und kardinale Schätzgütemaße vorgestellt. Es wird...

In this paper we study the impact of more transparency in the interbank market on the volume of bank intermediated loans and on the profitability of the banking business. Transparency is modeled by means of the informational content of publicly observable signals correlated to the random...

Bei Unsicherheit über die zukünftige Entwicklung des Wechselkurses sind international tätige Unternehmen nicht indifferent in Bezug auf die Wahl der Währung ihrer Preissetzung. Denn die bei der Fakturierung festgelegte Währung kann die Ertragssituation des Unternehmens erheblich...

This paper analyzes sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone using an extension to the canonical model for contagion proposed by Pesaran and Pick (2007) and Metiu (2012) to allow for time-varying coefficients. This becomes necessary due to changes in the risk pricing of sovereign bonds since the...

To clarify the causal links between financial activity and economic growth, three theoretical models are analyzed and a structural equation path models is estimated. In the modeling part, poverty traps result from large fixed costs or high proportions of real investment to run a financial...

An endogenous growth model with a financial sector is formulated, and empirical analyses are conducted. The model exhibits structural shifts and breaks caused by institutional change, suggesting that a linear approach is inadequate. To address this point empirically, we fit data for 90 countries...