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This paper aims to illustrate how a Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (MCS-GVAR) model can be set up and solved for the purpose of forecasting and scenario simulation. The application involves two cross-sections: sovereigns and banks for which we model their credit default swap...
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spreads during the crisis, not only for euro area countries but globally. By contrast, regional spill overs and contagion have … been less important, including for euro area countries. The paper also finds evidence for herding contagion – sharp …
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A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharp appreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper finds that negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered a significant strengthening of the US dollar,...
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We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we … euro area countries. In our empirical results the estimated LGDs perceived by financial markets stay comfortably below 40 …
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In this paper we propose a composite indicator that measures multi-dimensional sovereign bond market stress in the euro … area as a whole and in individual euro area member states. It integrates measures of credit risk, volatility and liquidity … eleven euro area member states and also present four options of a SovCISS for the entire monetary union. In addition, we …
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