Crises on external sovereign debt are typically defined as defaults. Such a definition accurately captures debt-servicing difficulties in the 1980s, a period of numerous defaults on bank loans. However, defining defaults as debt crises is problematic for the 1990s, when sovereign bond markets...

We explore a model intended to capture the interaction between exchange rate policy, fiscal policy, and outright default on foreign-currency denominated debt. We examine how the exchange rate affects the supply of short-term debt facing the government. We show that under a credible hard peg...

Currency boards operate differently from standard pegs. The former exhibit greater currency stability and lower transaction costs, inflation, and nominal interest rates, but are limited in their use of devaluation. We extend Drazen and Masson’s (1994) signaling model to consider the choice...

We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and...

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Peru. The economy continued to perform well in 2004. Real GDP grew by 5.1 percent, inflation was 3.5 percent at end-December, and the fiscal deficit of the combined public sector narrowed to 1.1 percent of...

Uruguay’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Modification, Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria are discussed. Growth remains robust, inflation is subdued, and the external position continues to strengthen, with buoyant exports and...

This paper examines Uruguay’s Request for a Stand-By Arrangement. Although the external current account shifted to a moderate deficit, mainly reflecting the recovery in imports, export performance has been robust, and gross international reserves are now about three-fourths their...

This paper examines Uruguay’s Fifth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Modification of the Arrangement and Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria. The macroeconomic framework is broadly on track, but progress with structural reform remains...

Increasing emphasis has been placed on the need for an effective lender of last resort for sovereign states and on procedures for sovereign debt restructuring to help cope with global financial crises. Where private creditors use short-term debt to check sovereign debtor’s moral hazard, there...

The staff report for the Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and request for establishment of performance criteria focuses on Peru’s economic developments, outlook, and program for 2006. The Peruvian economy continues to perform well. Fiscal transparency has been increased,...