This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of OTC currency options on the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty correcting for the volatility risk premium and errors-in-variable problems, using state-of-the-art techniques (Chernov 2001). It finds that these markets are more efficient than...

This paper examines the impact of Dollar exchange rate volatility on firm productivity in Emerging Markets economies (EMs). Using firm level data covering 16 EMs over the period 1998 -2019, the paper shows that dollar exchange rate volatility reduces firm productivity growth. Exploring channels,...

We document that, historically, although stronger growth in the U.S. increases growth in emerging markets, U.S. dollar appreciation (depreciation) cycles - which are highly persistent - mitigate (amplify) the impact on real GDP growth in emerging markets. We argue that the main transmission...

A striking feature of sovereign lending is that many countries with moderate debt-to-income ratios systematically face higher spreads and more stringent borrowing constraints than others with far higher debt ratios. Earlier research has rationalized the phenomenon in terms of sovereign...

Does gross or net debt matter for long-term sovereign spreads in emerging markets? The topic is important for understanding the borrowing cost implications of public asset liability management decisions (e.g. using assets to lower debt). We investigate this question using data on emerging market...

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses triggered a historically large wave of capital reallocation between markets and asset classes. Using high-frequency country-level data, this paper examines if and how the number of COVID cases, the stringency of the lockdown, and the fiscal...