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The day-of-the-week effect revisited: An alternative testing approach

Alt, Raimund; Fortin, Ines; Weinberger, Simon - 2002

This paper questions traditional approaches for testing the day-of-the-week effect on stock returns. We propose an alternative approach based on the closure test principle introduced by Marcus, Peritz and Gabriel (1976), which has become very popular in Biometrics and Medical Statistics. We test...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292794

Combining forecasts based on multiple encompassing tests in a macroeconomic core system

Costantini, Mauro; Kunst, Robert M. - 2009

We investigate whether and to what extent multiple encompassing tests may help determine weights for forecast averaging in a standard vector autoregressive setting. To this end we consider a new test-based procedure, which assigns non-zero weights to candidate models that add information not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294025

Europe´s crisis without end: The consequences of neoliberalism run amok

Palley, Thomas I. - 2013

This paper argues the euro zone crisis is the product of a toxic neoliberal economic policy cocktail. The mixing of … produced by creation of the euro. The latter prompted a ten year credit and asset price bubble that created fictitious … build-ups of debt. Additionally, the creation of the euro ensconced a flawed monetary system that fosters public debt crisis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460539

The effects of Dollar/Sterling exchange rate volatility of futures markets for coffee and cocoa

Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 1999

The paper investigates the extent to which the dollar/sterling exchange rate fluctuations affect coffee and cocoa futures prices on the London LIFFE and the New York CSCE by means of multivariate GARCH models - under the assumption that traders in perfectly competitive markets have equal access...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291928

After the Bust: The Outlook for Macroeconomics & Macroeconomic Policy

Palley, Thomas I. - 2008

The current economic crisis offers an historic opportunity for change. The depth of the crisis means there will likely be a policy turn in a Keynesian and even Post Keynesian direction. However, there are profound political, intellectual and sociological obstacles blocking change in underlying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460471

The European Financial and Economic Crisis: Alternative Solutions from a (Post-) Keynesian Perspective

Hein, Eckhard; Truger, Achim; van Treeck, Till - 2011

The financial and economic crisis in the Euro area has revealed a number of important flaws in the economic policy … euro, are not sustainable; and this is more serious in a period of crisis in particular. On the other hand, it has become … clear that the Euro area suffers from a serious lack of institutions and policy concepts, which will not allow coping with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460503

Did inequality cause the U.S. financial crisis?

van Treeck, Till - 2012

In his widely discussed book "Fault Lines" (2010), Raghuram Rajan argues that many U.S. consumers have reacted to the decline in their relative permanent incomes since the early 1980s by reducing saving and increasing debt. This has temporarily kept private consumption and thus aggregate demand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460517

Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis

Theobald, Thomas - 2012

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460521

On mean reversion in real interest rates: An application of threshold cointegration

Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 2002

Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292774

Tail-dependence in stock-return pairs

Fortin, Ines; Kuzmics, Christoph - 2002

The empirical joint distribution of return-pairs on stock indices displays high tail-dependence in the lower tail and low tail-dependence in the upper tail. The presence of tail-dependence is not compatible with the assumption of (conditional) joint normality. The presence of asymmetric-tail...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292792