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Can bad news about COVID-19 induce negative expectations on sovereign credit risks? We investigate the factors driving credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging market sovereigns around the outbreak of COVID-19. Using 2014-2019 data, we estimate a two-factor model of global and regional...
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We present theory and evidence that challenges the view that forward premia contain little information regarding subsequent spot rate movements. Using weekly dollar-mark and dollar sterling data, we find that spot and forward exchange rates together are well represented by a vector error...
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. In addition to standard Wald tests, we formulate Lagrange Multiplier and Distance Metric tests which require estimation … under the non-linear constraints of the null hypotheses. Estimation under the null is achieved by iterating on approximate …
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