When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...

We show that US financial shocks have an impact on the distribution of UK income and consumption. Households with higher income and higher levels of consumption are affected more by this shock than households located towards the lower end of these distributions. An estimated multiple agent DSGE...

This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...

This paper uses state-level data to estimate the effect of federal defense spending shocks on state real activity. We find moderately strong evidence that for the average state the fiscal multiplier is larger during recessions. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across the...