Recession ; fundamental inflation ; DSGE models ; Bayesian estimation …

: estimation of parameters that are relevant for policy trade-offs and treatment of estimated deviations from the cross …

generalized tempering for "online" estimation, and provide examples of multimodal posteriors that are well captured by SMC methods …. We then use the online estimation of the DSGE model to compute pseudo-out-of-sample density forecasts of DSGE models with …