Showing 1 - 7 of 7
This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000041
Does the federal funds rate respond to shocks when aggregate reserves are in the trillions of dollars? Has banks' demand for reserves moved over time? We provide a structural time-varying estimate of the slope of the reserve demand curve over 2010-21. We estimate a time-varying vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013257201
We study the relationship between bank capital ratios and the distribution of future real GDP growth. Growth in the aggregate bank capital ratio corresponds to a smaller left tail of GDP - smaller crisis probability - but at the cost of a smaller right tail of growth outcomes - smaller...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012385226
The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline has been common among advanced economies, as trends in real interest rates across countries have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904671
We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012167481
We show that realized volatility, especially the realized volatility of financial sector stock returns, has strong predictive content for the future distribution of market returns. This is a robust feature of the last century of U.S. data and, most importantly, can be exploited in real time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011868395
We assess the perception of professional forecasters regarding the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy measures announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Using survey data collected at the individual level, we analyze the change in forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399333