Showing 1 - 6 of 6
How much do term premiums matter for explaining the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates? A lot. We characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of professional forecasters covering more than 500 survey-horizon...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349
We re-examine the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in a setting that allows for nonlinear, time-varying relationships between monetary policy, financial stability, and macroeconomic outcomes. Using novel machine-learning techniques, we estimate a flexible "nonlinear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532008
Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249767
We show that realized volatility, especially the realized volatility of financial sector stock returns, has strong predictive content for the future distribution of market returns. This is a robust feature of the last century of U.S. data and, most importantly, can be exploited in real time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011868395
Most macroeconomic models impose a tight link between expected future short rates and the term structure of interest rates via the expectations hypothesis (EH). While the EH has been systematically rejected in the data, existing work evaluating the EH generally assumes either full-information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014519064
We investigate the factor structure of the term structure of interest rates and argue that characterizing the minimal dimension of the data-generating process is more challenging than currently appreciated. To circumvent these difficulties, we introduce a novel nonparametric bootstrap that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011999980