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We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282832
Financial frictions are a central element of most of the models that the literature on emerging markets crises has proposed for explaining the Sudden Stop phenomenon. To date, few studies have aimed to examine the quantitative implications of these models and to integrate them with an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327148
This paper explains the emergence of liquidity traps in the aftermath of large-scale financial crises, as happened in the US 1930s, Japan 1990s and recently in the US and Europe. The paper introduces a new balance sheet channel that links equity capital to the risk-free interest rate. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010335985
We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one fourth and one third of the increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010352184
policies. Starting from the view that the crises in the euro zone were basically triggered by financial markets and reinforced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014565890
side or a state behind it, just as the euro, Europe's common currency that the ECB is tasked with guarding, is a … 'denationalised' currency. The euro area is a rare exception to the global 'one state, one currency' rule. But the ECB is not the only … central bank in the euro area. Rather, the ECB is designed as the headquarters (or perhaps 'cockpit') of the Eurosystem, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014565903
This paper addresses the discussion between economic power and the power of politics with particular focus on financial markets. After general reflections about the economic basis of power, the paper discusses in a general equilibrium framework how financial innovations can lead to risk creation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316928
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how the change in actual and potential market risks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) during the two-year period 2007-2008 can be analyzed with the help of-analysis. In the empirical analysis, the average of the Lyapunov exponents for the dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321428
suitable to its specific economic, social, and political context. Alternatively, the euro area will have to create a fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266537
Nominal rigidities due to menu costs have become a standard element in closed economy macroeconomic modeling. The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" literature has investigated the implications of nominal rigidities in an open economy context and found that the currency in which prices are set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430031