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Crude oil prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate: A forecasting exercise

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; Breitenfellner, Andreas - 2008

developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes … from the euro area and (c) alternatives to oil invoicing in US dollar are costly. We give evidence that using information … on the US dollar/euro exchange rate (and its determinants) improves oil price forecasts significantly. We discuss …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293389

Estimating the border effect: Some new evidence

Gopinath, Gita; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Hsieh, Chang-Tai - 2009

To what extent do national borders and national currencies impose costs that segment markets across countries? To answer this question the authors use a dataset with product-level retail prices and wholesale costs for a large grocery chain with stores in the United States and Canada. They...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280948

Forecasting euro exchange rates: How much does model averaging help?

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus - 2007

We analyze the performance of Bayesian model averaged exchange rate forecasts for euro/US dollar, euro/Japanese yen …, euro/Swiss franc and euro/British pound rates using weights based on the out-of-sample predictive likelihood. The paper … predictions of euro exchange rates leads to improvements in predictive accuracy as measured by the mean square forecast error …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293409

Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand

Basu, Susanto; Bundick, Brent - 2012

This paper examines the role of uncertainty shocks in a one-sector, representative-agent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. When prices are flexible, uncertainty shocks are not capable of producing business cycle comovements among key macro variables. With countercyclical markups...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343352

Corporate campaign contributions as a predictor for abnormal stock returns after presidential elections

Huber, Jürgen; Kirchler, Michael - 2008

Contributions by investor-owned companies play major roles in financing the campaigns of candidates for elective office in the United States. We look at the presidential level and analyze contributions by companies before an election and their stock market performance following US presidential...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293413

Who is going to save us now? Bureaucrats, politicians and risky tasks

Raschky, Paul A.; Weck-Hannemann, Hannelore - 2007

The paper compares the policy choices regarding risk-transfer against low-probability-high-loss events between elected and appointed public officials. Empirical evidence using data on U.S. municipality-level shows that appointed city managers are more likely to adopt federal risk-transfer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293419

Estimating the effects of risk transfer mechanisms against floods in Europe and USA: A dynamic panel approach

Raschky, Paul A. - 2007

An analysis of the effects of natural hazards on society does not solely depend on a region's topographic or climatic exposure to natural processes, but the region's institutional resilience to natural processes that ultimately determines whether natural processes result in a natural hazard or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293431

Fiscal policy, trigger points and interest rates: Additional evidence from the U.S.

Reitschuler, Gerhard; Sendlhofer, Rupert - 2011

for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294827

Real output of bank services: What counts is what banks do, not what they own

Inklaar, Robert; Wang, J. Christina - 2011

The measurement of bank output, a difficult and contentious issue, has become even more important in the aftermath of the devastating financial crisis of recent years. In this paper, we argue that models of banks as processors of information and transactions imply a quantity measure of bank...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280912

Empirical estimates of changing inflation dynamics

Fuhrer, Jeff; Olivei, Giovanni; Tootell, Geoffrey M. B. - 2009

This paper provides an array of empirical evidence bearing on potentially important changes in the dynamics of U.S. inflation. We examine the overall performance of Phillips curves relative to some well-known benchmarks, the efficiency with which the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280920