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1971-2009. Financial shocks are defined as unexpected changes of a financial conditions index (FCI), recently developed by Hatzius et al. (2010), for the US. We use a time-varying factor-augmented VAR to model the FCI jointly with a large set of macroeconomic, financial and trade variables for...
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-parametric estimation is impractical given commonly available predictive sample sizes. Instead, this paper derives the approximate …
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unrestricted polynomials. In an empirical application on out-of-sample nowcasting GDP in the US and the Euro area using monthly …
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