This paper addresses the important question of how far a government will run down its stock of foreign reserves in a defense of a fixed exchange rate. An optimizing model of currency crisis is presented in which the decision of whether or not to borrow in a defense of a peg is explicitly...

This paper evaluates several indicators of external vulnerability and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Costa Rica. While current indicators are mostly positive, declining market shares of domestic exports, the expected decline in foreign direct investment, and the desirability of...

In economies in transition, the development of financial markets is a common objective linking the monetary and fiscal authorities, while monetary and public debt management cannot be strictly separated. This calls for close coordination of objectives and instruments of monetary and debt...

This paper offers guidance on the operational aspects of official intervention in the foreign exchange market, particularly in developing countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. A brief survey of the literature and country experience is followed by an analysis of the objectives, timing,...

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted debt ratio with primary fiscal surpluses. Based on quarterly estimates of this...

This staff report discusses Seychelles 2013 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion. The repayment of domestic debt, a preference for foreign financing, and shallow domestic financial markets have resulted in...

The 2007 Article IV Consultation explains Romania’s fiscal and income policies and financial sector issues. The economic outlook is clouded by a widening current account imbalance and the risk of a resurgence of inflation pressures, as a result of strong domestic demand that is being...

Seychelles's strong stabilization efforts has helped the economy to overcome debt crisis and global recession under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). But the authorities need to address monetary policy trade-offs, and financial sector challenges exist. Executive Directors welcomed Seychelles's...