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This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts using different estimation windows to account for …, Choice of Estimation Sample, Forecast Combinations, NAIRU Phillips Curve. …
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An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation rate in recent years reflects a structural development, but that the low levels of unemployment may be a mainly cyclical phenomenon.
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A new approach is proposed for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. Identification is achieved using Okun's law and a Phillips curve. The performance of the methodology is exemplified using data from Canada, the UK, and the US.
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