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Was kostet die Krise? Mittelfristige Wachstumsperspektiven in Deutschland, 2010 - 2014

Buchen, Teresa; Carstensen, Kai; Henzel, Steffen; … - 2010

2009 ist eine Diskussion darüber entbrannt, inwieweit die derzeitige Finanzkrise Einfluss auf die mittelfristigen … Zeitreihenmodellen abgeschätzt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass das Niveau des Produktionspotenzials aufgrund der Finanzkrise … Euro ableiten. Demgegenüber dürfte die Trendwachstumsrate in den kommenden Jahren bei 1,3 % liegen und damit nur …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010427571

The American consumer: Reforming, or just resting?

Carroll, Christopher D.; Slacalek, Jirka - 2009

American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303694

International evidence on sticky consumption growth.

Carroll, Christopher D.; Slacalek, Jiri; Sommer, Martin - 2008

We estimate the degree of ‘stickiness’ in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of auto-correlation, with a stickiness...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604932

Is European money demand still stable?

Carstensen, Kai - 2003

This paper analyzes the question whether money demand in the Euro area has undergone a structural change in recent time …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260468

Is European Money Demand Still Stable?

Carstensen, Kai - 2004

This paper analyzes the question whether money demand in the Euro area has undergone a structural change in recent time …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260486

Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?

Colavecchio, Roberta; Carstensen, Kai - 2004

In May 2003 the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the revision of its monetary policy strategy. Although the ECB stressed that the revision would not imply any fundamental change in their decisions, this remains to be verified empirically. Therefore, this paper tries to answer the question...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260501

Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?

Carstensen, Kai - 2007

In this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important information not contained in the inflation history,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260569

Price dispersion in the Euro Area : the case of a symmetric oil price shock

Carstensen, Kai; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2009

This paper studies the causes of price dispersion in the euro area emerging in response to a shock that hits all member …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271958

Macroeconomic expectations of households amd professional forecasters

Carroll, Christopher D. - 2002

Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441

The epidemiology of macroeconomic expectations

Carroll, Christopher D. - 2001

Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936) macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet in recent decades macroeconomists have devoted almost no effort to modeling actual empirical expectations data instead assuming all...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293481